Data-backed comparison of the 8 most common real estate lead types by ROI, close rate & more.
Jonathan Khorsandi on Jul 23, 2026
Every lead type in real estate investing comes with a cost, a close rate, and a margin profile. Most investors default to PPC, MLS expireds, or FSBO because those channels are easy to access — not because they're the most profitable.
This guide compares the 8 most common lead types on the metrics that actually matter: per-deal margin, close rate, competition level, outreach cost, and time to conversion.
| Lead Type | Per-deal margin | Close rate | Competition | Outreach cost | Time to conversion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probate | 18–35% | 5–12% | Low | Low | 3–9 months |
| Pre-foreclosure / NOD | 12–22% | 3–8% | High | Medium | 2–6 months |
| Tax delinquent | 10–20% | 2–6% | Medium | Low | Variable |
| Inherited / non-owner-occupied | 15–28% | 4–9% | Low–Medium | Low | 3–12 months |
| Vacant property | 8–18% | 1–4% | Medium | Medium | Variable |
| MLS expireds | 5–12% | 2–5% | Very high | Low | Days to weeks |
| FSBO | 3–8% | 5–10% | High | Low | Days to weeks |
| PPC / paid digital leads | 2–6% | 1–3% | Very high | Very high | Days to weeks |
Note: Margin percentages reflect below-market acquisition discount versus retail value. Close rates reflect conversion from first qualified contact to signed agreement, assuming competent multi-touch outreach and accurate lead data.
Per-deal margin: 18–35% below retail Close rate: 5–12% with disciplined outreach Competition: Low Outreach cost: Low (court records are public; enriched data costs pennies per lead) Time to conversion: 3–9 months (average probate process runs 6–9 months)
Probate leads consistently rank first on per-deal margin. The reason isn't sentiment — it's economics.
Why probate sellers accept lower prices:
Outreach timing matters. Contacting within 14–30 days of probate filing converts at roughly 3x the rate of older leads. Multi-touch outreach (direct mail + phone) outperforms letter-only campaigns by 3x on close rate.
Sourcing: ProbateData aggregates court filings nationwide, enriches each lead with CoreLogic® property data, skip-traces executor contacts, and scores each case with a PDI (ProbateData Index) rating from 0 to 100. This eliminates the manual courthouse research that makes probate sourcing impractical at scale.
Per-deal margin: 15–28% below retail Close rate: 4–9% Competition: Low to medium Outreach cost: Low (property records are public) Time to conversion: 3–12 months
Inherited properties outside formal probate share many of the same seller motivations: out-of-state owners, deferred maintenance, no emotional attachment to the property, and no mortgage to clear. The difference from probate is the absence of a court process — these deals typically come together through direct negotiation with the owner of record.
Key challenge: Finding and reaching non-owner-occupants requires accurate skip tracing. Without it, you're sending mail to the property address and hoping the owner forwards or checks in.
Overlap with probate: A significant portion of inherited non-owner-occupied properties eventually enter the probate process, especially when multiple heirs are involved. Working both channels in the same market creates a larger universe of off-market opportunity.
Per-deal margin: 12–22% below retail Close rate: 3–8% Competition: High Outreach cost: Medium Time to conversion: 2–6 months
Pre-foreclosure leads — properties in active Notice of Default (NOD) status — attract heavy investor competition. Every other investor in your market has access to the same NOD filings. The best deals close quickly, and sellers who've been contacted by 10 investors in a week are not in a motivated-seller mindset.
Where the opportunity remains: The best pre-foreclosure deals come from investors who contact early in the NOD window, before mass outreach begins. This requires daily monitoring of courthouse filings or an aggregated data platform that alerts you same-day.
Comparison to probate: Pre-foreclosure sellers have a mortgage to clear, which sets a floor on the price they can accept. Probate sellers have no such constraint. This structurally limits the margin available on pre-foreclosure deals relative to probate.
Per-deal margin: 10–20% below retail Close rate: 2–6% Competition: Medium Outreach cost: Low Time to conversion: Variable (dependent on redemption period laws by state)
Tax delinquent leads surface property owners who haven't paid property taxes — often an early signal of distress or disengagement with the property. Lead quality varies significantly by state, as redemption period laws affect how long a property can remain in tax delinquency before action.
Key limitation: Tax delinquency doesn't always signal motivation to sell. Some owners pay back taxes late habitually. Others have fully paid properties with cash flow problems. Conversion rates reflect this unpredictability.
Best use: Tax delinquent data works best layered with other signals — high equity, non-owner-occupied status, or long-term ownership — to identify leads who are both distressed and likely to sell.
Per-deal margin: 8–18% below retail Close rate: 1–4% Competition: Medium Outreach cost: Medium (driving for dollars, satellite imagery tools, or list services) Time to conversion: Variable
Vacant properties signal potential distress but not necessarily motivated sellers. Some are owned by investors holding for land development. Others are maintained vacation properties. The signal-to-noise ratio on vacant leads is lower than on court-document-sourced leads like probate or pre-foreclosure.
Where it works: Markets with high absentee ownership and significant investor activity in rehab and resale. Vacant properties in these markets tend to be owned by landlords who are done managing them — a more reliable seller motivation than vacancy alone.
Per-deal margin: 5–12% below retail Close rate: 2–5% Competition: Very high Outreach cost: Low (MLS data is widely accessible) Time to conversion: Days to weeks
Expired listings represent sellers who wanted to sell at retail and couldn't. They're not necessarily motivated to take below-market offers — many relist with a different agent. The investor opportunity is narrow: sellers who are genuinely ready to accept a discount after a failed retail attempt.
The competitive problem: Every wholesaler, agent, and investor with MLS access contacts expireds. The first 3–5 contacts a seller receives are typically within 48 hours of expiration. Being #12 in the queue produces poor results.
Per-deal margin: 3–8% below retail Close rate: 5–10% Competition: High Outreach cost: Low Time to conversion: Days to weeks
FSBO sellers are trying to sell without a realtor to save commission — they're generally not offering below-market prices, they're trying to capture full retail value. Investor conversions from FSBO lead to the smallest margins in the category.
Exception: FSBO sellers who've been on market for 60+ days and haven't sold often become significantly more flexible. Targeting stale FSBOs rather than fresh listings improves margin outcomes.
Per-deal margin: 2–6% below retail Close rate: 1–3% Competition: Very high Outreach cost: Very high ($150–$500+ per lead for motivated seller PPC) Time to conversion: Days to weeks
Paid digital leads are the most expensive source and the most competitive. Every investor running Google Ads or Facebook motivated-seller campaigns is bidding for the same audience. Close rates are low because the same seller is typically being worked by multiple investors simultaneously.
When it makes sense: PPC works for investors with strong conversion systems and the cash flow to fund lead costs. It doesn't work as a margin play — it works as a volume play in high-turnover markets.
Beyond per-deal metrics, probate leads have a compounding dynamic the other categories don't:
Estate attorney referral networks. Executors work with probate attorneys. Probate attorneys work with multiple executors simultaneously. An investor or agent who builds a reputation in the probate attorney community gets warm referrals — deals that never hit the open market and come pre-qualified.
Repeat business from the same heirs. Families who own multiple properties across different estates, or who work with the same investor on a satisfying first transaction, become repeat sources. This doesn't happen with expireds or FSBO.
Consistent lead volume. Approximately 300,000 probate properties enter the market annually in the US, driven by demographics that don't swing with interest rates or economic cycles. Pre-foreclosure volume, by contrast, is tightly correlated with mortgage rates and unemployment.
| Lead Type | Per-deal margin | Close rate | Competition | Outreach cost | Time to conversion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probate | 18–35% | 5–12% | Low | Low | 3–9 months |
| Pre-foreclosure / NOD | 12–22% | 3–8% | High | Medium | 2–6 months |
| Tax delinquent | 10–20% | 2–6% | Medium | Low | Variable |
| Inherited / non-owner-occupied | 15–28% | 4–9% | Low–Medium | Low | 3–12 months |
| Vacant property | 8–18% | 1–4% | Medium | Medium | Variable |
| MLS expireds | 5–12% | 2–5% | Very high | Low | Days to weeks |
| FSBO | 3–8% | 5–10% | High | Low | Days to weeks |
| PPC / paid digital leads | 2–6% | 1–3% | Very high | Very high | Days to weeks |
What are the most profitable real estate lead types for investors? Probate leads consistently produce the highest per-deal margin (18–35% below retail) due to free-and-clear ownership, motivated sellers, and low retail buyer competition. Pre-foreclosure and inherited non-owner-occupied leads follow as the next most profitable categories.
Why are probate leads more profitable than other lead types? Probate sellers often own properties outright (no mortgage floor on price), didn't plan to be sellers, and face ongoing costs (taxes, insurance, maintenance) that motivate fast resolution. This produces larger acquisition discounts than lead types where sellers have financial or lifestyle constraints driving them toward retail prices.
What is a good close rate for probate leads? A well-managed probate outreach campaign targeting contacts within 14–30 days of filing, with multi-touch sequences (direct mail + phone), achieves 5–12% close rates. Below 3% typically indicates stale data, poor filtering, or single-channel outreach.
Are probate leads better than pre-foreclosure leads? For per-deal margin, yes. Probate sellers have no mortgage to clear, so they can accept lower prices. Pre-foreclosure sellers need enough to pay off the loan plus transaction costs, which limits the discount available. Pre-foreclosure also faces higher investor competition.
What is the best tool for finding probate leads? ProbateData is the most complete dedicated platform: nationwide coverage, filterable by filing date, county, and PDI score, with DNC-screened skip-traced contacts and CoreLogic® property data built in. PropStream covers probate alongside other distressed categories but with less depth. USLeadList is the best budget option for single-county testing.
How long does it take to close a probate lead? The probate process typically runs 6–9 months from filing to estate distribution. Most investor deals close before the estate fully distributes — the goal is to secure a purchase agreement with the executor early in the process, with a closing date that works around the court timeline.
